India government bonds yield - SBI constant maturity fund etc - yield curve, and also trendline last 2 years for key series
- Key G-sec yields have risen over the past year, with the 10Y at ~7% and the 30Y at ~8%.
- The curve has steepened: the 10Y–1Y spread is ~1%, up from ~0.2% in Sep-2024.
- The 10Y yield is forecast near ~7% through Oct-2027, while SBI's 10Y constant-maturity gilt fund yields ~7% at ~7-year duration.
Key G-sec yields have risen, with the 10Y at ~7% and the 30Y at ~8% in Oct-2026.
Key G-sec tenors, Sep-2024 to Oct-2026 (yield, %)
Source: CCIL, FBIL/FIMMDA, Capera; month-end/quarterly observations
Raw data
| Category | 1Y | 5Y | 10Y | 30Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep-24 | 6.63 | 6.71 | 6.8 | 6.93 |
| Sep-25 | 5.7 | 6.25 | 6.62 | 7.2 |
| Dec-25 | 5.59 | 6.51 | 6.78 | 7.41 |
| Apr-26 | 5.49 | 6.6 | 6.92 | 7.51 |
| Jul-26 | 5.78 | 6.45 | 6.78 | 7.4 |
| Oct-26 | 5.99 | 7.17 | 7.37 | 7.78 |
The G-sec curve has steepened from a year ago, with the 10Y at ~7% and the 30Y at ~8%.
India G-sec yield curve: 16 Oct 2026 vs 1 month and 12 months earlier (yield, %)
Source: Capera (G-Sec curve), CCIL
Raw data
| Category | 16 Oct 2026 | 1 month ago (16 Sep 2026) | 12 months ago (Oct 2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 5.78 | 5.19 | 5.41 |
| 6M | 5.405 | 5.579 | 5.488 |
| 1Y | 5.986 | 6.031 | 5.527 |
| 2Y | 6.72 | 6.487 | 5.675 |
| 3Y | 7.148 | 6.552 | 5.854 |
| 4Y | 7.145 | 6.743 | 6.073 |
| 5Y | 7.165 | 6.777 | 6.14 |
| 6Y | 7.339 | 6.924 | 6.378 |
| 7Y | 7.331 | 6.975 | 6.378 |
| 8Y | 7.389 | 7.028 | 6.511 |
| 9Y | 7.343 | 7.032 | 6.543 |
| 10Y | 7.371 | 7.055 | 6.504 |
| 11Y | 7.426 | 7.125 | 6.693 |
| 12Y | 7.44 | 7.223 | 6.758 |
| 13Y | 7.437 | 7.247 | 6.806 |
| 14Y | 7.415 | 7.207 | 6.8 |
| 15Y | 7.532 | 7.194 | 6.788 |
| 19Y | 7.659 | 7.505 | 6.936 |
| 24Y | 7.789 | 7.62 | 7.071 |
| 30Y | 7.783 | 7.626 | 7.069 |
| 40Y | 7.831 | 7.695 | 7.137 |
The 10Y–1Y spread has widened to ~1% from ~0.2% in Sep-2024.
Curve steepening: 10Y minus 1Y G-sec spread, Sep-2024 to Oct-2026 (bps)
Source: CCIL, FBIL/FIMMDA, Capera
Raw data
| Category | 10Y-1Y spread |
|---|---|
| Sep-24 | 17 |
| Sep-25 | 92 |
| Dec-25 | 119 |
| Apr-26 | 144 |
| Jul-26 | 100 |
| Oct-26 | 139 |
The 10Y yield has risen by ~0.9% over 12 months to ~7% and is forecast at ~7% by Oct-2027.
10-year G-sec yield, Oct-2023 to Oct-2026, with 12-month outlook (%, monthly average)
Source: OECD via FRED, CCIL (Oct-2026 point); forecast: Trading Economics models
Raw data
| Date | 10Y G-sec (monthly avg) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-01 | 7.35 | |
| 2023-11-01 | 7.27 | |
| 2023-12-01 | 7.224 | |
| 2024-01-01 | 7.2025 | |
| 2024-02-01 | 7.09 | |
| 2024-03-01 | 7.068 | |
| 2024-04-01 | 7.15 | |
| 2024-05-01 | 7.054 | |
| 2024-06-01 | 7.0225 | |
| 2024-07-01 | 7.0075 | |
| 2024-08-01 | 6.91 | |
| 2024-09-01 | 6.8325 | |
| 2024-10-01 | 6.785 | |
| 2024-11-01 | 6.812 | |
| 2024-12-01 | 6.7775 | |
| 2025-01-01 | 6.758 | |
| 2025-02-01 | 6.7325 | |
| 2025-03-01 | 6.6825 | |
| 2025-04-01 | 6.455 | |
| 2025-05-01 | 6.272 | |
| 2025-06-01 | 6.3075 | |
| 2025-07-01 | 6.35 | |
| 2025-08-01 | 6.522 | |
| 2025-09-01 | 6.585 | |
| 2025-10-01 | 6.482 | |
| 2025-11-01 | 6.5375 | |
| 2025-12-01 | 6.6325 | |
| 2026-01-01 | 6.732 | |
| 2026-02-01 | 6.77 | |
| 2026-03-01 | 6.84 | |
| 2026-04-01 | 7.05 | |
| 2026-05-01 | 7.02 | |
| 2026-06-01 | 6.89 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 6.78 | |
| 2026-08-01 | 6.84 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 7.06 | |
| 2026-10-16 | 7.371 | 7.371 |
| 2026-12-31 | 7.17 | |
| 2027-10-16 | 7.03 |
The repo is ~6% and the 30Y G-sec ~8%, while SBI's 10Y constant-maturity gilt fund yields ~7%.
Rate stack, 16 Oct 2026: policy rate to 30Y, with SBI 10Y constant maturity gilt fund YTM (%)
Source: CCIL, RBI, SBI MF/Moneycontrol (fund YTM 7.05%, modified duration 6.77 yrs, AUM Rs 1,605 cr)
Raw data
| Category | Yield |
|---|---|
| RBI repo | 5.5 |
| 91D T-bill | 5.73 |
| 1Y G-sec | 5.99 |
| 5Y G-sec | 7.17 |
| 10Y G-sec | 7.37 |
| SBI 10Y CM fund YTM | 7.05 |
| 30Y G-sec | 7.78 |