Can you make a record of michael burrys predictions along with outcome? Chart it beautifully
- Ten of 11 bearish calls were followed by S&P 500 gains; the index is ~88% above its Feb-2023 sell-call level.
- Eight of those calls preceded double-digit gains of ~13-47%, and the index has climbed ~195% since Jan-2019.
- Subprime is one of four correct calls out of 18 documented Burry predictions.
Ten of Burry's 11 bearish calls were followed by S&P 500 gains, eight of them double-digit increases of ~13-47%.
S&P 500 change in the 12 months after each Burry bearish market call (%)
Source: S&P 500 monthly averages (Multpl / S&P Dow Jones Indices); calls from press, SEC 13F filings
Raw data
| Category | Forward S&P 500 change |
|---|---|
| Dec-15 | 9.4 |
| May-17 | 12.8 |
| Sep-19 | 12.9 |
| Mar-20 | 47.4 |
| Feb-21 | 14.2 |
| Sep-22 | 14.5 |
| Feb-23 | 22.9 |
| Aug-23 | 24.3 |
| Nov-25* | 14.0 |
| May-26* | 3.6 |
| Aug-26* | -0.4 |
Since Burry's Feb-2023 sell call, the S&P 500 has risen ~88%, from 100 to ~188.
S&P 500 rebased to 100 at the Feb-2023 "Sell" call, through 23-Oct-2026
Source: S&P 500 monthly averages (Multpl / S&P Dow Jones Indices)
Raw data
| Date | S&P 500 rebased (Feb-23 = 100) |
|---|---|
| 2023-02-01 | 100.0 |
| 2023-03-01 | 97.3 |
| 2023-04-01 | 101.0 |
| 2023-05-01 | 101.6 |
| 2023-06-01 | 106.5 |
| 2023-07-01 | 110.5 |
| 2023-08-01 | 108.5 |
| 2023-09-01 | 108.1 |
| 2023-10-01 | 104.4 |
| 2023-11-01 | 109.3 |
| 2023-12-01 | 114.8 |
| 2024-01-01 | 117.8 |
| 2024-02-01 | 122.9 |
| 2024-03-01 | 126.7 |
| 2024-04-01 | 124.9 |
| 2024-05-01 | 128.3 |
| 2024-06-01 | 132.7 |
| 2024-07-01 | 135.9 |
| 2024-08-01 | 134.9 |
| 2024-09-01 | 137.9 |
| 2024-10-01 | 142.0 |
| 2024-11-01 | 145.3 |
| 2024-12-01 | 147.3 |
| 2025-01-01 | 146.6 |
| 2025-02-01 | 148.0 |
| 2025-03-01 | 139.3 |
| 2025-04-01 | 131.6 |
| 2025-05-01 | 142.4 |
| 2025-06-01 | 147.8 |
| 2025-07-01 | 154.3 |
| 2025-08-01 | 157.1 |
| 2025-09-01 | 161.4 |
| 2025-10-01 | 165.1 |
| 2025-11-01 | 165.2 |
| 2025-12-01 | 168.0 |
| 2026-01-01 | 169.8 |
| 2026-02-01 | 169.0 |
| 2026-03-01 | 163.1 |
| 2026-04-01 | 170.5 |
| 2026-05-01 | 181.7 |
| 2026-06-01 | 182.6 |
| 2026-07-01 | 183.4 |
| 2026-08-01 | 189.0 |
| 2026-09-01 | 188.0 |
| 2026-10-01 | 188.3 |
The S&P 500 has risen from ~2,600 in Jan-2019 to ~7,700 in Oct-2026, a ~195% increase.
S&P 500 and Burry's bearish calls, Jan 2019-Oct 2026
Source: S&P 500 monthly averages (Multpl / S&P Dow Jones Indices); call dates from press reports and SEC filings
Raw data
| Date | S&P 500 (monthly average) | Burry call |
|---|---|---|
| 2019-01-01 | 2607.39 | |
| 2019-02-01 | 2754.86 | |
| 2019-03-01 | 2803.98 | |
| 2019-04-01 | 2903.8 | |
| 2019-05-01 | 2854.71 | |
| 2019-06-01 | 2890.17 | |
| 2019-07-01 | 2996.11 | |
| 2019-08-01 | 2897.5 | |
| 2019-09-01 | 2982.16 | |
| 2019-10-01 | 2977.68 | |
| 2019-11-01 | 3104.9 | |
| 2019-12-01 | 3176.75 | |
| 2020-01-01 | 3278.2 | |
| 2020-02-01 | 3277.31 | |
| 2020-03-01 | 2652.39 | |
| 2020-04-01 | 2761.98 | |
| 2020-05-01 | 2919.61 | |
| 2020-06-01 | 3104.66 | |
| 2020-07-01 | 3207.62 | |
| 2020-08-01 | 3391.71 | |
| 2020-09-01 | 3365.52 | |
| 2020-10-01 | 3418.7 | |
| 2020-11-01 | 3548.99 | |
| 2020-12-01 | 3695.31 | |
| 2021-01-01 | 3793.75 | |
| 2021-02-01 | 3883.43 | |
| 2021-03-01 | 3910.51 | |
| 2021-04-01 | 4141.18 | |
| 2021-05-01 | 4167.85 | |
| 2021-06-01 | 4238.49 | |
| 2021-07-01 | 4363.71 | |
| 2021-08-01 | 4454.21 | |
| 2021-09-01 | 4445.54 | |
| 2021-10-01 | 4460.71 | |
| 2021-11-01 | 4667.39 | |
| 2021-12-01 | 4674.77 | |
| 2022-01-01 | 4573.82 | |
| 2022-02-01 | 4435.98 | |
| 2022-03-01 | 4391.27 | |
| 2022-04-01 | 4391.3 | |
| 2022-05-01 | 4040.36 | |
| 2022-06-01 | 3898.95 | |
| 2022-07-01 | 3911.73 | |
| 2022-08-01 | 4158.56 | |
| 2022-09-01 | 3850.52 | |
| 2022-10-01 | 3726.05 | |
| 2022-11-01 | 3917.49 | |
| 2022-12-01 | 3912.38 | |
| 2023-01-01 | 3960.66 | |
| 2023-02-01 | 4079.68 | |
| 2023-03-01 | 3968.56 | |
| 2023-04-01 | 4121.47 | |
| 2023-05-01 | 4146.17 | |
| 2023-06-01 | 4345.37 | |
| 2023-07-01 | 4508.08 | |
| 2023-08-01 | 4426.24 | |
| 2023-09-01 | 4409.1 | |
| 2023-10-01 | 4258.98 | |
| 2023-11-01 | 4460.06 | |
| 2023-12-01 | 4685.05 | |
| 2024-01-01 | 4804.49 | |
| 2024-02-01 | 5011.96 | |
| 2024-03-01 | 5170.57 | |
| 2024-04-01 | 5095.46 | |
| 2024-05-01 | 5235.23 | |
| 2024-06-01 | 5415.14 | |
| 2024-07-01 | 5542.89 | |
| 2024-08-01 | 5502.17 | |
| 2024-09-01 | 5626.12 | |
| 2024-10-01 | 5792.32 | |
| 2024-11-01 | 5929.92 | |
| 2024-12-01 | 6010.91 | |
| 2025-01-01 | 5979.52 | |
| 2025-02-01 | 6038.69 | |
| 2025-03-01 | 5683.98 | |
| 2025-04-01 | 5369.5 | |
| 2025-05-01 | 5810.92 | |
| 2025-06-01 | 6029.95 | |
| 2025-07-01 | 6296.5 | |
| 2025-08-01 | 6408.95 | |
| 2025-09-01 | 6584.02 | |
| 2025-10-01 | 6735.69 | |
| 2025-11-01 | 6740.89 | |
| 2025-12-01 | 6853.03 | |
| 2026-01-01 | 6929.12 | |
| 2026-02-01 | 6893.81 | |
| 2026-03-01 | 6654.42 | |
| 2026-04-01 | 6957.01 | |
| 2026-05-01 | 7412.55 | |
| 2026-06-01 | 7450.03 | |
| 2026-07-01 | 7481.34 | |
| 2026-08-01 | 7711.32 | |
| 2026-09-01 | 7669.41 | |
| 2026-10-01 | 7681.84 |
Burry has four hits in 18 documented calls, with subprime among the correct calls.
Burry's record by call category, 2005-2026 (count of documented calls)
Source: Author's classification of 18 documented calls from press reports, SEC 13F filings and Burry's Substack/X posts
Raw data
| Date | Correct | Partly right | Wrong | Pending |
|---|