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Can you make a record of Cramer's predictions and outcome?

Can you make a record of Cramer's predictions and outcome?

  • In 2008, Cramer's named stocks fell ~13-78%, and 8 of 11 dropped more than the S&P 500's ~39%.
  • Ten of 11 flagship calls lost money; the model portfolio returned ~65% versus ~126% for the S&P 500.
  • The long Cramer ETF returned ~6% in 2023 while the Nasdaq-100 rose ~30%, and the inverse ETF lost ~5%.

Ten of 11 highest-profile calls lost money by resolution.

Highest-profile calls: return to an investor who followed each call, to resolution (%)

Source: CNBC transcripts, press reports, exchange data

Raw data
DateReturn to follower

Cramer's model portfolio underperformed the S&P 500 in 8 of 14 years, including ~1% versus ~14% in 2014.

Cramer's published model portfolio vs S&P 500, annual total return, 2002-2015 (%)

Source: Hartley & Olson (Wharton), Action Alerts PLUS returns 2001-2016

Raw data
CategoryCramer Action Alerts PLUSS&P 500 total return
2002-19.79-21.97
200334.4628.36
20045.2510.74
20055.194.83
20067.0515.61
20079.515.49
2008-37.67-36.55
200931.1425.93
201014.2914.82
2011-9.582.1
201216.6715.89
201325.7832.04
20141.3313.52
2015-2.331.37

The long Cramer ETF returned ~6% while the Nasdaq-100 rose ~30% and the inverse Cramer ETF lost ~5%.

Cramer-tracking ETFs vs Nasdaq-100, 1 Mar-31 Aug 2023 (%)

Source: SEC N-CSR filings; Tuttle Capital Management

Raw data
CategoryMar-Dec 2023 to closure
Long Cramer ETF (LJIM)6.2
Inverse Cramer ETF (SJIM)-5.04
Nasdaq-100 TR index30.39

Average one-year excess returns by Cramer buy-call type are not available.

Average 1-year return vs S&P 500 by type of Cramer buy call, 2018-2024 (pp)

Source: Kull (2026), 16,701 Mad Money recommendations, Jan 2018-Dec 2024, SSRN 6643379

Raw data
DateAverage 1-year excess return

2008 \"Top Ten\" predictions: full-year 2008 price return of each named stock vs S&P 500 (%)

Source: Investment Scientist audit of 2 Jan 2008 Mad Money list; exchange data

Raw data
Category2008 return
Merrill Lynch-78.0
Transocean-67.6
Goldman Sachs-59.1
Apple-57.3
Google-56.2
Warner Music-50.5
Whirlpool-48.9
Black & Decker-39.8
JPMorgan-27.0
Clorox-15.3
Colgate-13.0
S&P 500-38.5

Can you chart long cramer ETF, inverse cramer and VTI last 5 years

  • The Cramer ETFs lasted ~12 months: the long fund returned ~6% and the inverse fell ~21%, while VTI returned ~28%.
  • VTI has more than doubled ~$100 to ~$207 from Dec 2020 to Oct 2026.

The long Cramer ETF returned ~6% and the inverse fell ~21%, while VTI rose ~28% over the same period.

Cramer ETFs vs VTI, total return over the funds' lives (1 Mar 2023 – 23 Feb 2024, %)

Source: SEC N-CSR filings, Tuttle Capital liquidation notices, Vanguard; VTI estimated from quarterly total returns

Raw data
CategoryTotal return
LJIM (long Cramer) to 31 Aug 20236.2
SJIM (inverse Cramer) to 23 Feb 2024-20.9
VTI same window28.0

VTI has turned ~$100 into ~$207 from Dec 2020 to Oct 2026.

VTI total return, growth of $100, Dec 2020 – Oct 2026 (index)

Source: Vanguard, totalrealreturns.com

Raw data
CategoryVTI
2020100.0
2021125.68
2022101.15
2023127.49
2024157.85
2025184.84
2026 YTD207.41

Can we track his predictions last 2 years?

  • Over 2024-25 Cramer's trust lagged the S&P 500 by ~4% and ~5%, respectively.
  • In 2026 his 90-day idea hit rate was ~47% and returns lagged the S&P by ~2%.
  • At 180 days his 2026 hit rate was ~64% and returns led the S&P by ~5%.
  • Autopilot's inverse-Cramer returned ~33% and Quiver's ~2% in 2026, while theme stocks ranged from ~103% to -12%.

Cramer's Charitable Trust has trailed the S&P 500 by ~4% in 2024 and ~5% in 2025.

Cramer's Charitable Trust vs S&P 500, annual total return, 2024-2025 (%)

Source: CNBC Investing Club; S&P Dow Jones Indices

Raw data
CategoryCramer Charitable TrustS&P 500
202420.7425.02
202512.4817.88

Cramer's 2026 idea hit rate ranged from ~47% at 90 days to ~64% at 180 days.

Cramer idea hit rate by holding period, 2026 (%)

Source: Buzzberg Research, 515 ideas Jan-Sep 2026

Raw data
CategoryWin rate (direction correct)
7 days51.0
30 days54.2
90 days47.2
180 days63.8

Cramer's 2026 ideas returned ~2% at 90 days versus ~4% for the S&P, and ~14% at 180 days versus ~9%.

Average return per Cramer idea vs S&P 500 by holding period, Jan-Sep 2026 (%)

Source: Buzzberg Research, 515 ideas Jan-Sep 2026

Raw data
CategoryFollow CramerS&P 500 (SPY)
7 days0.140.14
30 days1.250.53
90 days1.513.71
180 days14.389.44

Autopilot's inverse-Cramer strategy returned ~33% in 2026, ~21% above the S&P, while Quiver's returned ~2%, ~10% below.

Inverse-Cramer strategies vs S&P 500, 2026 year to date (%)

Source: Autopilot (22 Oct 2026), Quiver Quantitative (early Aug 2026), S&P DJI

Raw data
Category2026 YTD return
Autopilot Inverse Cramer33.3
Quiver Inverse Cramer2.49
S&P 50012.4

Theme stocks have ranged from ~103% for PANW to -12% for COF, with 11 of 13 posting positive returns.

Cramer's 13 stocks named as 2026 themes: year-to-date return vs S&P 500 (%)

Source: CNBC, BeInCrypto, exchange data (as of 8 Aug 2026)

Raw data
CategoryYTD return
PANW102.85
AMAT100.52
CRWD89.08
LRCX68.24
KLAC55.44
WSM34.03
JNJ25.0
MS22.0
GS18.0
LLY10.0
RL9.1
AXP-8.54
COF-12.17