Fed July Hike Odds Jump to 38% From 12% as Oil and Yields Spike; Warsh Faces Dissent
- CME FedWatch now prices a 38% chance the FOMC hikes at its July 29 meeting, up from 12% a week ago; FactSet-polled economists still expect a hold at 3.50%–3.75% (Forbes, CBS News, Reuters).
- Fed Governor Christopher Waller and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack openly pushed for action; Lisa Cook cited 3.7% inflation; nearly half of policymakers at the June meeting backed a hike this year (AOL/Reuters, Forbes).
- Warsh's no-forward-guidance strategy is being tested by a hawkish colleagues' bloc and renewed oil/tariff shocks — UBS still doubts a hike, calling oil-driven supply inflation unlikely to move policy.