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Reddit put option trade evaluation

Should I sell Reddit put options right now? Is it profitable?

about 12 hours ago
3 replies Ask a follow up

To answer this, I need to look at RDDT's current stock price, recent performance, and options chain data. Let me gather everything together.Let me now compute the latest price and analyze the key data points.Now let me get the precise latest price to analyze alongside the options chain.Now I have all the key data. Let me put together the analysis.


RDDT Put Selling Analysis

RDDT last close: $170.38 (Jul 22, 2026) — down 8.3% on the day.

Key Fundamentals

Quarter Revenue Op Income Net Income
Q1'25 $392M $3.9M $26.2M
Q2'25 $500M $67.7M $89.3M
Q3'25 $585M $138.5M $162.7M
Q4'25 $726M $231.8M $251.6M
Q1'26 $663M $182.9M $204.0M

Reddit's fundamentals are improving but Q1'26 showed a sequential dip in revenue (down 9% QoQ) and operating income. The stock has fallen 34% from its 52-week high of $258.93 and now sits near its average since January (~$168).


Options Chain Snapshot — Jul 24 Expiry (2 Days)

Selected ATM and OTM puts:

Strike Put Mid IV Delta OI
$160 $1.08 93% -0.17 92
$162.50 $1.55 91% -0.23 300
$165 $2.22 91% -0.30 46
$167.50 $2.77 90% -0.39 70
$170 $3.90 86% -0.47 51
$172.50 $5.07 84% -0.56 199
$175 $6.45 83% -0.66 325

31-Day Out (Aug 21): Selected Strikes

Strike Put Mid IV Delta
$150 $8.03 90% -0.26
$155 $9.88 90% -0.31
$160 $11.70 88% -0.35
$165 $14.03 88% -0.40
$170 $16.43 88% -0.44
$175 $19.64 87% -0.49

Analysis

The case FOR selling puts:

  • IV is extremely elevated — 83–93% across near-term strikes. This means options are pricing in massive moves, and put sellers capture that rich premium.
  • For the Jul 24 expiry, a $160 put (~6% OTM) offers ~$1.08 credit for 2 days of risk. Annualized, that's an extraordinary return if the stock holds.
  • The business is solidly profitable now — trailing 4Q net income: ~$707M. Revenue is growing rapidly YoY.
  • RDDT has already corrected 34% from highs.

The case AGAINST selling puts:

  • The stock just dropped $15 in a single day (-8.3%). This is not a calm tape.
  • IV is high for a reason — the market expects continued turbulence.
  • Q1'26 showed a revenue deceleration. If Q2'26 (reporting soon) disappoints, the stock could gap lower.
  • The Jul 24 expiry is only 2 days away — you're picking up pennies in front of a potential steamroller if the selloff continues.

Verdict

Selling puts on RDDT right now is high-risk, high-reward. The elevated IV means the premiums are unusually rich — a $160 Jul 24 put yields ~0.6% return on capital for 2 days (~115% annualized). But the -8.3% single-day drop signals serious downside momentum.

The more prudent approach would be to wait for the stock to stabilize, or sell deeper OTM puts (e.g., $150–$155 strike) with 30-day expiries where premium is substantial (8–10% of strike) and you have more time to manage the position. The Aug 21 $150 put (~12% OTM) pays ~$8.03 for 30 days — a ~5.4% return on capital, with a meaningful cushion.

Bottom line: The premiums are juicy, but this is not a "safe" put-selling setup. Sizing small and going deep OTM is the only sensible way to play this.

about 12 hours ago
2 replies Ask a follow up

Should RV in such a scenario be considered historic (30 days, 1 year) or the 1 day RV which was ~8%/day?

about 12 hours ago
1 reply Ask a follow up

Good question — you're asking whether to use historical realized volatility (30-day, 1-year) or the single-day -8.3% move as your benchmark for assessing whether the IV on these puts is truly "rich." Let me pull the actual price history to compute the real numbers.Here's the answer.


RV vs IV: The Proper Comparison

Realized Vol (annualized) Value
1-day (Jul 22) 137.9%
5-day 73.1%
10-day 62.7%
21-day (1 month) 72.4%
30-day 77.9%
63-day (3 month) 75.8%
126-day (6 month) 70.6%
252-day (1 year) 68.3%

For comparison, the ATM put IVs sit around 86–90% across expiries.


The Single-Day RV Is a Distraction

You can't annualize a single day's -8.69% move to 138% and use that as your vol benchmark. A one-day crash tells you the stock can gap, but it says nothing about what sustained volatility looks like over your holding period. If you're selling a 2-day put, that 1-day number is relevant as a tail-risk warning — not as a vol estimate. If you're selling a 30-day put, the 1-day print is mostly noise.

What matters is the match between your holding period and the RV window:

  • 2-day put (Jul 24): The 5-day RV of 73% is closest to relevant. IV at ~86–90% is modestly rich — you're being paid about 15–20 vol points above what the stock has actually realized recently. That's attractive, but with a single trading day left, there's almost no time for mean reversion to work in your favor.

  • 30-day put (Aug 21): The 30-day RV of 78% and 3-month RV of 76% are the right benchmarks. IV at ~88% gives you ~10–12 vol points of edge. That's meaningful over a month — especially because the elevated 30-day RV is itself inflated by the most recent drop. Excluding yesterday, the 1-year RV was just 68%.

The Real Insight

The 21-day rolling RV over the past year ranged from 34.5% to 90.2%. The current 21-day RV of 72% is near the high end — meaning we're in a vol-up regime. But IV at 88% is pricing in even more turbulence than the already-elevated recent volatility. Historically, RV has rarely exceeded 90% for sustained periods in RDDT.

That's the trade: you're selling vol at 88% when the stock has been realizing 68–78%. The edge is real. But the downside is that the -8.7% day just happened, and vol regimes can persist. If you sell, you're betting against the streak continuing. The 30-day RV is the right benchmark; the 1-day RV is the reason to size small.

about 12 hours ago