if tqqq is at 75 right now. When tqqq is at 25 (if it drops) - does that mean qqq has dropped by a similar % (~66% drop)?
Let me think through this carefully.
TQQQ is a 3x leveraged ETF that aims to deliver 3x the daily return of QQQ. However, due to compounding and volatility decay, the relationship between TQQQ's price drop and QQQ's price drop over longer periods isn't a simple 3:1 ratio.
Let me get the actual price data to illustrate this properly.I notice only QQQ was returned. Let me check TQQQ separately.TQQQ doesn't appear to be in the local database, but the conceptual answer doesn't require live data. Here's the analysis:
Short Answer: No, not exactly.
TQQQ dropping from $75 to $25 is a ~67% decline, but that does not mean QQQ dropped ~67%. Here's why:
The Math
TQQQ aims for 3x the daily return of QQQ, not 3x the cumulative return. Over multi-day or multi-week periods, compounding creates a divergence.
If QQQ dropped ~22% (straight down, no volatility), TQQQ would drop roughly 3x that, or ~66%. But that's the idealized, frictionless case.
Real-World Reality
In practice, two major effects work against you:
Volatility Decay: If QQQ bounces around while declining, TQQQ gets hammered. A -5% day followed by a +5.26% day leaves QQQ flat — but TQQQ would be down (~-0.8%) due to the math of leveraged compounding.
The Path Matters: TQQQ could hit $25 while QQQ is down much less than 22%, if the decline is choppy. Conversely, a very rapid straight-line QQQ crash of ~22% could get TQQQ there fast.
Historical Context
During the 2022 drawdown, QQQ dropped ~33% peak-to-trough, while TQQQ dropped roughly ~80% — far worse than 3x the QQQ decline. So a 67% TQQQ drop could easily correspond to a QQQ decline in the 15-25% range, depending on the speed and volatility of the move.
Bottom line: A TQQQ drop to $25 does imply a meaningful QQQ selloff, but you can't assume a 1:3 ratio. The choppier the decline, the less QQQ needs to fall for TQQQ to get crushed.