Bond Rout Erases 'Soft-CPI Yield Drop': 10-Year at 4.71%, 30-Year Nears 5.19% as Warsh Holds the Line on Inflation
- Two-year yields hit 4.37% (highest since Feb 2025), 10-year 4.71% (highest since Jan 2025), 30-year 5.19% (highest since 2007), 30-year real 2.98% (highest since 2008) — a complete reversal of the post-CPI rally as oil and Iran risks repriced Fed expectations (Reuters).
- CME FedWatch now prices 38% odds of a July 29 hike, up from 12% a week ago; Waller and Hammack openly favor tightening, while Warsh reiterates a 'no tolerance' stance but offers no policy signal (AOL/Reuters).
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth put the Iran conflict cost at $37.5B; fiscal concerns and the August 5 Treasury refunding announcement are also weighing on the long end (Reuters).