June CPI Report: Headline Cools to 3.5% (-0.4% MoM), Core to 2.6% — Below Forecasts
- Actual June CPI: -0.4% MoM (biggest drop since April 2020), +3.5% YoY headline (vs. 3.8% consensus), and +2.6% YoY core (vs. 2.9% in May) — per BLS release at 8:30 a.m. ET (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm).
- Stocks surged at the open on the softer-than-expected print: S&P 500 +0.2%, Nasdaq +0.5%, Dow -75 pts; 2-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.28%, 10-year to 4.62% (https://apnews.com/article/stocks-markets-oil-iran-trump-ai-6807d21c72974fbac48356f83eeebbce).
- Cooler gas prices drove the headline drop, but with the Iran war reigniting oil could reverse the disinflation in July — TD Securities sees Brent possible at $100 if Hormuz disruption worsens (https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/7/14/oil-hits-1-month-high-as-us-iran-fighting-clouds-strait-of-hormuz-outlook).