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Customer Geography Mix & China Revenue Exposure (Nvidia)

about 2 months ago
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I have comprehensive geographic revenue data from Nvidia's FY24, FY25, and FY26 10-K filings. Let me build a chart-ready dataset and present the full picture.

I need to use df_668 (the loaded dataframe). Let me skip the compute and go directly to the chart and presentation.

Nvidia — Customer Geography Mix (FY22–FY26, $B)

Revenue is reported by customer billing location (FY22–FY25) and was reclassified in Q3 FY26 to customer headquarters location. Prior-year figures were recast.

Region FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
United States 4.3 8.3 27.0 61.3 149.6
Taiwan 8.5 7.0 13.4 20.6 42.3
China (incl. Hong Kong) 7.1 5.8 10.3 17.1 19.7
Singapore n/d 2.3 6.8 23.7 n/d
Other 6.9 3.6 3.4 7.9 4.3
Total 26.9 27.0 60.9 130.5 215.9

Key observations

  • US share has surged from 16% (FY22) to ~69% (FY26), driven by explosive demand from U.S.-headquartered hyperscalers and AI model makers for Compute & Networking products.
  • Taiwan (mostly OEM/ODM hubs for Foxconn, Wistron, Quanta serving US hyperscalers) is the second-largest geography. In FY26, Nvidia disclosed that ~76% of Taiwan-headquartered Data Center revenue was actually shipped to end-customers in the US and Europe — i.e., Taiwan revenue is largely a pass-through for US demand.
  • Singapore (revenue 18% in FY25) is primarily an invoicing hub — Nvidia noted physical shipments into Singapore were <2% of total revenue. Singapore was rolled into "Other" or recast out in the FY26 recast.
  • China revenue peaked at ~$25B in FY25 (recast FY26 headquarters basis) before collapsing in FY26 to $19.7B despite strong fiscal growth, as export controls took effect.

China revenue exposure — a sharp step-down

FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26
21% of DC rev / 21% total 14% of DC rev / 17% total mid-teens % DC ~9% total
  • USG export controls (H100/H800/A100 → then expanded to H20/L40S/RTX 4090/Blackwell) require licenses for China shipments. To date Nvidia has received no meaningful licenses for restricted products.
  • Nvidia shipped degraded China-specific SKUs (H20), but in Q1 FY26 took a $4.5B H20 inventory & purchase obligation charge after April 2025 restrictions.
  • A small August 2025 license yielded ~$60M of H20 revenue; a Feb 2026 H200 license has generated no revenue to date and imposes a 25% US-import tariff.
  • China antitrust regulators (Sep 2025) preliminarily concluded Nvidia's export-control compliance discriminated against Chinese customers, violating Mellanox-merger commitments — exposure to penalties or operational restrictions.
  • As of end-FY26, Nvidia states it is effectively foreclosed from China's data center compute market and "unable to create a competitive China product acceptable to both USG and PRC."
  • China is now a mid-to-high single-digit % of Data Center revenue — down from ~19% at the start of the AI cycle (FY23).

Bottom line: Nvidia's revenue base is now decisively US-anchored (~69% of FY26 revenue), Taiwan functions as a contract-manufacturing funnel for US demand, and direct China exposure has been structurally compressed by export controls, with policy risk elevated on both sides of the Pacific.

about 2 months ago