Treasury Yields Climb to 4.50% as Hawkish Warsh, Trade Jitters Pressure Markets at Half-Year Mark
- The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.50% on July 1, up about 3 basis points, as hawkish Fed expectations and USMCA uncertainty drove safe-haven repricing.
- Yields are climbing in tandem with cautious equity futures, reflecting concern that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh — making his Sintra ECB Forum debut today — may lean into his 'inflation is a choice' message and signal a possible 2026 rate hike rather than cuts.
- The Treasury selloff comes as oil also ticked up (Brent ~$73.20, WTI ~$70) on Iran-ceasefire concerns, layering geopolitical risk onto a market already digesting a blockbuster first half. (MarketWatch, Bloomberg)