I'll help you analyze SPY's returns over the last 30 years. Let me start by loading the price data.

Note: SPY's local data starts on 1999-11-01, so we have ~27 full calendar years (2000–2026) rather than a full 30. I'll show you the table and a chart.

Key Stats

Metric	Value
Average annual return (arithmetic mean, 1999-2026)	9.60%
Median annual return	13.46%
CAGR (1999-2026)	8.07%
Years within ±1.0% of the 9.60% average	1 out of 27
Years within ±2.0% of the 9.60% average	2 out of 27

Annual SPY Returns vs Average

Let me fix the chart by using a proper date column.

Year-by-Year SPY Returns vs 9.60% Average

Year	SPY Return	vs Avg
2000	-9.73%	-19.33
2001	-11.75%	-21.36
2002	-21.59%	-31.19
2003	28.18%	+18.57
2004	10.70%	+1.10 ✅
2005	4.83%	-4.78
2006	15.85%	+6.24
2007	5.14%	-4.47
2008	-36.81%	-46.41
2009	26.37%	+16.76
2010	15.06%	+5.46
2011	1.89%	-7.71
2012	15.99%	+6.38
2013	32.31%	+22.70
2014	13.46%	+3.86
2015	1.25%	-8.35
2016	12.00%	+2.39
2017	21.70%	+12.10
2018	-4.56%	-14.16
2019	31.22%	+21.62
2020	18.37%	+8.77
2021	28.75%	+19.15
2022	-18.17%	-27.78
2023	26.29%	+16.69
2024	25.02%	+15.42
2025	17.73%	+8.13
2026 YTD	5.15%	-4.46

Takeaways

• Average annual return ≈ 9.6%, median 13.5%, CAGR 8.1% (1999–2026).
• Only 1 of 27 years (2004, +10.70%) landed within ±1% of the average.
• Just 2 of 27 years were within ±2% — ~93% of years deviated meaningfully from the long-run average.
• Annual SPY returns are noisy: they swing from -37% (2008) to +32% (2013), so the "average" is rarely the actual experience in any given year.
• The mean is pulled down by a handful of crisis years (2000–02, 2008, 2022); the median (13.5%) is a better representation of a "typical" up-year.