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pe ratio at previous market booms

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I'll research historical PE ratios at major market booms for you. Let me gather this information since market-wide PE ratios (like S&P 500) aren't directly available in our local data tools, so I'll need to search for the historical context.

PE Ratios at Previous U.S. Market Booms

Below is a comparative table of S&P 500 trailing P/E and Shiller CAPE (cyclically adjusted P/E) at the peak of each major U.S. equity boom, with the 1-year forward S&P 500 return that followed. Data sourced from Robert Shiller / Yale, Multpl, GuruFocus, and Macrotrends.

Table 1 — S&P 500 valuations at major boom peaks

Boom Peak Date Trailing P/E Shiller CAPE S&P 500 Return Next 1Y Drawdown to Trough
Roaring Twenties / Pre-Depression Sep 1929 ~32.6 32.6 −28.5% −86% (1932)
Post-WWII / Nifty Fifty Dec 1968 ~24.0 24.1 −11.4% −48% (1974)
Dot-Com Bubble Dec 1999 32.9 44.2 −10.1% −49% (Oct 2002)
Housing / Commodity Bubble Oct 2007 ~17.4 27.6 −38.5% −57% (Mar 2009)
Post-Pandemic / ZIRP Nov 2021 35.96 38.6 −19.4% −25% (Oct 2022)
Current (Jun 2026) Jun 2026 ~31.5 ~40.1

Long-term median S&P 500 trailing P/E since 1871 ≈ 16.0; mean ≈ 25.3. Long-term CAPE median ≈ 16.1; mean ≈ 17.6 (1881–present).

Let me also pull a chart of the CAPE ratios at those peaks for quick visual comparison.

Here's a chart of the S&P 500 (SPY ETF) price since the dot-com peak to visually anchor the boom/bust cycles:

  • Dot-com peak (Dec 1999): SPY ≈ $84
  • Housing peak (Oct 2007): SPY ≈ $155
  • Post-pandemic peak (Nov 2021): SPY ≈ $480
  • Latest (Jun 2026): SPY ≈ $750

Key observations from the PE / CAPE history

  1. Trailing P/E is noisy at market tops. It can spike above 100 in deep earnings recessions (e.g., 2009: 70.9 → eventually >120), so the Shiller CAPE is the cleaner boom-comparator because it smooths earnings over 10 years.

  2. The 2021 peak (CAPE 38.6) was the 2nd highest in 145 years, surpassed only by December 1999 (44.2). The current reading near CAPE 40 is unprecedented in persistence — the 2021–2026 stretch has held CAPE in the "extreme" zone (>30) for ~4+ consecutive years, longer than any prior episode (1929 and 1999 each lasted ~3 years before crashing).

  3. Every prior CAPE peak above 27 was followed by a negative 1-year return, ranging from −10% (dot-com) to −38% (GFC).

  4. Trailing P/E at the 2007 housing peak (17.4) looked "normal" because earnings were inflated by financial-sector leverage. The CAPE (27.6) was the better warning signal.

  5. Two structural shifts since 2009 keep today's elevated multiples in place: (a) a lower real-rate regime compressing discount rates, and (b) much higher corporate profit margins (~12% vs. ~9% pre-2000), which inflate earnings and lower the trailing P/E denominator.

If you'd like, I can extend this with: - Forward P/E at each peak (consensus 12-mo EPS) - Equity risk premium at each peak - Nasdaq vs. S&P 500 P/E comparison at the dot-com peak

1 day ago