PCE Inflation Holds at 4.1%, Cooling Rate-Hike Bets
- The latest PCE price index showed inflation running at 4.1% year-over-year, above the Fed's 2% target but largely matching consensus forecasts, prompting investors to scale back bets on an imminent rate hike.
- Treasury yields have eased in response, with the 10-year note hovering around 4.40%, as markets digest the data alongside the Fed's June 17 decision to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75%.
- Fed officials have signaled inflation remains elevated and left open the possibility of a rate hike before year-end, a notable shift from the rate-cut path projected earlier in 2026.